Iraq
Formerly part of the Ottoman Empire, Iraq became an independent kingdom in 1932. A "republic" was proclaimed in 1958, but in actuality a series of military strongmen have ruled the country since then, the latest being SADDAM Husayn. Territorial disputes with Iran led to an inconclusive and costly eight-year war (1980-1988). In August 1990 Iraq seized Kuwait, but was expelled by US-led, UN coalition forces during January-February 1991. The victors did not occupy Iraq, however, allowing the regime to stay in control. Following Kuwait's liberation, the UN Security Council (UNSC) required Iraq to scrap all weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles and to allow UN verification inspections. Saddam Hussein's regime did not comply. Coalition forces attacked, brought down the regime and began occupation, but there has not been a significant improvement in the overall security situation.
An uncounted number of Iraqi bystanders have been killed or injured in insurgent attacks. Non-combatants expatriates have also fallen the victims of the often indiscriminant bomb and rocket-propelled-grenade (RPG) attacks. Terrorists have lunched planned deliberate attacks against foreign targets in Baghdad, including embassies, hotels and UN offices.
Despite the December 2003 capture of Saddam Hussein, and his subsequent execution, almost daily insurgent attacks continue to occur against U.S. and coalition soldiers, Iraqi police and in some cases, against non-combatant contractors, aid workers and Iraqi political figures. Attacks have occurred with particular frequency in and around Baghdad, further to the west around the city of Fallahjah, where 4 US contractors were murdered and mutilated in April 2004, and in the areas to the north up to and beyond the city of Takrit.
Also in April 2004, Shiite insurgents launched attacks on coalition forces in southern areas of the country.
Meanwhile, crime and outright banditry has risen almost unchecked throughout the country. See "Recent Incidents" below for specific instances.
Crime and outright banditry has risen almost unchecked throughout the country, despite the reinstatement and return to duty of nearly 35,000 Iraqi police officers. Police officers and installations are a prime target for insurgent attacks. Looting, carjackings, and robberies are a daily fixture in Baghdad. Domestic disputes and the settling of “old score” have also left many Iraqis dead or hospitalized.
Highway robberies along major arteries like Highway Two between Baghdad and the Jordanian border continue to occur frequently. With Baghdad’s airport still closed to commercial traffic, Highway Two remains a lifeline to the outside world for the city. Though the road has long had its dangers, the fall of Saddam Hussein and now guerrilla war between shadowy militants and thinly spread U.S. forces has unleashed a crime wave along the road. Despite excited talk in the airline industry, officials say there is little prospect of Baghdad airport reopening any time soon -- partly due to a risk from anti-aircraft missiles.
Many Iraqis are rapidly losing patience with the US-led Interim Administration’s inability to reliably restore basic services like electricity and water. With perhaps unrealistically high short-term expectations on the part of many Iraqis, there is a very real prospect for growing rather than diminishing resistance to the Coalition.
Without going into a detailed analysis of a fluid situation, below is an outline of the current power blocks vying for influence in postwar Iraq:
Sunni Muslims (from the Western standpoint the conservative Muslims) have ruled Iraq for 700 years. In fact at the time of independence from Briton in 1932, they were likely the majority. Demographics have change and the Sunnis are now minority group. Saddam Hussein was a Sunni. The Sunni population occupies a swath of Iraq which is essentially Baghdad, 100 miles south of Baghdad, and 200 miles north of Baghdad. After their many years of rule, they are fearful of the prospect of a democracy under which they may become the oppressed people.
Shiites
Shiite Muslims represent the majority group in Iraq. Most are native to Iraq, but others emigrated from Iran, either to escape the Shah or to escape the Ayatollahs. Oppressed by Saddam Hussein, in their view betrayed by the U.S. in 1991 during their uprising and heavily influenced by Iran’s conservative religious leaders, they are a trump card in democratic Iraq.
Kurds
A group oppressed by the successive Iraq regimes, Coalition forces at the beginning of the war embraced the Kurds. The minority Kurds remain divided among themselves and are unlikely to extend any lasting influence on the country as a whole outside their northern strongholds.
Attacks have been concentrated in Baghdad, Fallujah, Ramadi, Tikrit, Bayji, Baqubah and to a lesser extent in the Mosul and Kirkuk areas, but the security environment in all of Iraq remains volatile and unpredictable. Falujah is especially dangerous, though a pilot U.S. program to provide cash payments to families of Iraqis killed by Coalition forces by accident has helped to ease tensions.
In sparsely populated rural areas banditry rather than insurgent activity has sprung-up as the major concern. Bandits armed with automatic rifles ply many isolated roads seeking travelers for robberies, and in some cases carjackings.
Meanwhile, an estimated 4,000-6,000 foreign extremist “volunteers” entered Iraq shortly before the outbreak of hostilities. Most of these returned home disillusioned by the quick fall of the Iraqi regime, but a number remained in the country or have returned. These volunteers generally hold intense anti-American sentiments and the availability of relatively unprotected U.S. targets in the still chaotic country presents an inviting opportunity.
Despite Coalition efforts to disarm Iraqi citizens, weapons of every kind are widely available in Iraq. In addition to AK-47 assault rifles, the weapons of choice for attacks against the Coalition forces have been rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), landmines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The IEDs are often made from unexploded artillery shells, which are widely available, and are placed near roads or overpasses to be detonated remotely as targeted vehicles pass. Sniper attacks against patrols and vehicles do occur, but Coalition efforts to seal off and contain areas after an attack appear to be deterring gunmen, whose chances of escape after carrying out a sniper attack have diminished.
Crime
The burgeoning crime wave that has swept across Iraq in recent months has become one of the greatest concerns of Iraqis citizens. Likewise, the failure to curb crime has been one of the strongest criticisms made against the Coalition.
Brazen daytime robberies, petty thefts, kidnappings for ransom and carjackings in cities like Baghdad and on major highways have shaken the confidence of many in the Coalitions ability to restore order. In fact, many neighborhoods have resorted to vigilante justice, with known thieves and robbers being summarily executed by citizens.
Transport
Despite announcements by a number of airlines proclaiming their intention to resume flights to Iraq, the fact remains that all Iraq’s international airports remain closed to civilian air traffic. Given the current security situation, it is unlikely the airports will reopen to commercial carriers any time soon. Therefore, travel to and from Iraq by individuals is confined to long arduous journeys from Amman, Jordan or Kuwait City, Kuwait, unless arraignments can be made to fly on Coalition sanctioned flights via charter aircraft.
As noted above, highway bandits have plagued overland travel. Bandits are unlikely to challenge convoys protected by armed escort vehicles, but individual travelers and unprotected convoys could be subject to interdiction.
Due to the potential danger, Jordanian drivers who ply the Amman-Baghdad route currently charge about US$500 per trip to ferry people in and out, a small fortune by local standards.
Heath Care
Another concern for expatriate residents and visitors to Iraq is the current lack of basic healthcare. Iraqi hospitals, marginal at best during normal times, have been overtaxed since the outbreak of hostilities. Private healthcare facilities are almost non-existent. Currently the only alternatives are medical facilities associated with the Coalition forces and clinics operated by aid groups and other NGOs.
Basic services remain unreliable or non-existent. Even cellular phone services are unavailable at present (except for a WorldCom network setup for exclusive use by Coalition officials).
Companies planning to operate in Iraq over the near to mid-term are entering a tenuous situation and will face numerous obstacles, from security to transportation to communication to logistics to basic healthcare.
