Tunisia
Following independence from France in 1956, President Habib BOURGIUBA established a strict one-party state. He dominated the country for 31 years, repressing Islamic fundamentalism and establishing rights for women unmatched by any other Arab nation. In recent years, Tunisia has taken a moderate, non-aligned stance in its foreign relations. Domestically, it has sought to diffuse rising pressure for a more open political society.
While there are no known specific threats to travelers or expatriate personnel in Tunisia, in April 2002, 18 people, including 13 German tourists were killed when a truck bomb exploded at a historic synagogue at the Tunisian resort of Djerba. After initially calling the blast accidental, Tunisian authorities eventually conceded that it was probably an attack linked to operatives tied to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida terror network. Travelers should also exercise particular caution given the heightened tension in the Middle East.
Tunisia has open borders with Libya and Algeria, but travelers are advised to avoid border areas due to the Islamic extremist activity in Algeria and the possibility of banditry in rural Libyan areas.
The Tunisian government, headed by President Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali (now in the midst of his third, five-year term, which runs through October 2004) and his Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) party, appears determined to continue liberalizing and reforming the country's economy, although at a pace which does not provoke popular unrest. In September 2001, President Ben Ali was nominated to stand as a candidate in the next presidential election, despite a constitutional ruling which bars Ben Ali from a fourth term. In December 2001, the parliament approved the country's 2002 budget, which aims to reduce the deficit to 2.2% of GDP (from 2.4% in 2001). The IMF is pushing Tunisia to accelerate its reform efforts (i.e., reducing the fiscal deficit by cutting spending), but the government is concerned not to move too rapidly. In December 2001, the IMF issued a generally positive report on Tunisia's economy, stressing the importance of continued privatization, cuts in subsidies, restructuring of the country's banking and financial sector, and multilateral trade liberalization.
Tunisia's real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by a solid 4.0% in 2002, the same as in 2001, but down from 4.7% growth in 2000 and 6.1% growth in 1999. Inflation is expected to remain low in 2002, following estimated inflation of around 3% in 2001. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased in Tunisia from 488 million Tunisian dinars in 1999 to 1.1 billion Tunisian dinars in 2000, of which 320 million dinars was in the energy sector. Some of the FDI has come from privatizations. In late 2000 the government announced that an additional 41 companies would begin to be privatized in 2001, with proceeds expected to be over $1.2 billion. Despite all this, unemployment remains at high levels (officially 16%, but unofficially much higher), there are signs of growing social pressures, and the country's debt burden is expected to increase in 2002. Estimates for the country's crucial tourist industry (Tunisia's main source of foreign currency earnings and second largest employer) took a downturn in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States will likely fall further in 2002 in the aftermath of the terrorist attack at resort of Djerba.
