Pakistan
The separation in 1947 of British India into the Muslim state of Pakistan (with two sections West and East) and largely Hindu India was never satisfactorily resolved. A third war between these countries in 1971 resulted in East Pakistan seceding and becoming the separate nation of Bangladesh. A dispute over the state of Kashmir is ongoing. In response to Indian nuclear weapons testing, Pakistan conducted its own tests in 1998.
Given the high risk of Islamic extremist attacks, travelers may wish to defer travel to Pakistan, and those in Pakistan should consider departing unless their presence is essential. Personnel who choose to remain in Pakistan should register with their embassy, exercise very high levels of personal security awareness and understand that foreigners may be the targets of terrorist acts.
The series of terrorist attacks against Western targets throughout 2002-2003 demonstrate the heightened security risks to travelers and residents in Pakistan. There have been reports of planning for possible terrorist attacks against western interests, in all major metropolitan centers. Travelers should be aware that terrorists may seek to attack so-called "soft targets" such as but not limited to - hospitals, hotels, places of worship and schools.
Pakistan's decision to launch offensive operations in March 2004 against suspected al-Qaida and Taliban suspects on tribal areas near the Afghan border could prompt a new round of terror attacks in the country's major cities. Western interests and Pakistani government facilities would likely be preferred targets.
Pakistans President, Pervez Musharraf narrowly escaped two assassination attempts in December 2003 near Islamabad. In the first on December 14, powerful explosive charges destroyed a bridge just seconds after his motorcade passed over it. Less than two weeks later, on December 25, suicide car bombers attacked Musharraf’s motorcade. Fifteen people, including the bombers, died in that attack Musharraf’s car was slightly damaged. The attacks have been blamed on Islamic extremists opposed to his support for the U S-led “war on terror”.
Pakistan's support in the war on terror and the continuing tensions in the Middle East may prompt an increase in anti-Western sentiment in Pakistan. Travelers should avoid large public gatherings, regular gatherings involving foreigners and be alert for people behaving suspiciously. Cars should not be left unattended in public venues such as shopping centers and market places. There is also a potential threat from terrorists posing as street vendors or beggars in busy streets. Personnel who regularly travel between their place of residence and their workplace should vary their times of travel and routes.
Personnel should also exercise vigilance in traffic situations and be particularly alert to possible attacks when waiting at traffic lights. They should try to avoid busy, heavily congested traffic routes wherever possible.
Areas of Pakistan outside Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore remain particularly volatile and unpredictable. Although tensions between Pakistan and India have eased, the situation has the potential to degenerate rapidly.
President Pervez Musharraf seized power in October 1999 after learning that he had been sacked as army chief and alleging that then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif planned to shoot down his aircraft during landing in Islamabad after a trip to Sri Lanka. Musharraf has vowed to clean up the Pakistani politics, which became increasingly corrupt during the 1980's and 1990's.
In early mid-2001 Musharraf launched a campaign to rein in Islamic extremists in Pakistan and he subsequently gave full support to the international campaign against terrorism after the September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States. Nevertheless, following the defeat of the Taliban and its al-Qaida supporters in Afghanistan, many Al-Qaida members fled to Pakistan. With support from indigenous sectarian and militant groups, they could become a long-term threat to the security situation in the country.
Recent economic developments in Pakistan have been dominated by the military campaign in neighboring Afghanistan beginning in October 2001. The United States permanently lifted sanctions against both India and Pakistan in September 2001: sanctions were imposed in 1998 in the wake of the nuclear tests, but a substantial aid program now has resumed and the United States waived its sanctions in March 2004. International donor organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are concerned that Pakistan's reforms are losing momentum due to the difficulty in building a consensus in Pakistan's Parliament. While some reforms have already been carried out, it was noted that difficult reforms, such as raising natural gas prices, have been put on hold. The two institutions previously agreed to provide substantial amounts of additional credit, totaling nearly $10 billion over the next three years.
Pakistan's critical textile industry has been adversely affected since September 2001, and agricultural production was already suffering from a severe drought in 2001, but an inflow of aid has improved Pakistan's short-term financial situation considerably. The United States also has agreed to reduce or suspend some tariffs on imports of Pakistani textile products, which should help boost Pakistani export earnings.
Pakistan's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate was 3.6% in 2002, falling well short of earlier forecasts. Real GDP growth for 2003 is expected to reach 4.1%. Pakistan's external debt is equal to around 60% of its annual GDP, and its debt payments due each year exceed its receipts from exports. The government also suffers from a relatively ineffective system for tax collection, with only 1% of the population paying income taxes, though the Musharraf government has begun a program to increase tax collection rates, and the effort is showing some signs of success.
While formal legal protections for foreign investment in Pakistan generally are good, inadequate infrastructure, a poorly educated workforce, sectarian and ethnic violence, and a slow-moving judicial system have proven to be obstacles to attracting foreign investment. While some of the well-publicized disputes between Pakistani state entities and the country's Independent Power Producers (IPP's) have been resolved, the dispute has been a major blow to foreign investor confidence in Pakistan. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan in recent years has been only a small fraction of the comparable figures for the mid-1990s. Pakistan's often tense relationship with India also has been a limiting factor. In April 2003, India and Pakistan moved resume full diplomatic relations, which had been severed in December 2001.
In addition to the warning above, travelers to Pakistan are advised that sectarian and/or factional violence can erupt with little warning, notably in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), Sindh Province (both in urban Karachi and Hyderabad, as well as in rural areas), and in Baluchistan Province where pro-Taliban and al-Qaida support is high. Travelers should also be aware that there are many areas of Pakistan that are restricted by the Government of Pakistan and require non-Pakistanis to obtain official permission before they may travel to them. This includes the tribal areas of Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province, areas along the Line of Control, the Pakistan-India border and near other sensitive areas and facilities. Travelers need to determine beforehand whether the areas they intend to visit have any Pakistan government restrictions on them. If so, then the appropriate authorities must be contacted and approval obtained before travel is undertaken.
