Incidents of unrest likely to continue

Several developments occurred in Iran over the 27-28 June 2009 weekend. Following several days with no significant pro-reformist demonstrations, reformist supporters took to the streets of Tehran on 28 June, staging a protest that coincided with a planned rally by the government to commemorate an ayatollah killed in an anti-regime bombing in 1981. The rallies took place near the Ghoba Mosque in northern Tehran; more than 3,000 supporters of reformist presidential candidate Hossein Mousavi gathered for the rally, which security forces violently dispersed using tear gas and batons. Security forces quickly cordoned off the area, blocking streets to prevent additional persons from reaching the rally site. Several people were injured, and reports indicate that several others were arrested, although exact figures are not available given the ongoing massive media crackdown. In another development on 28 June, Iranian officials arrested as many as nine local employees of the British Embassy in Tehran. The arrests come amid increased tensions between the Iranian and British governments as well as between Iran and the West in general. Officials stated that the individuals were arrested for alleged involvement in the post-election unrest and protests; several employees have since been released. The British government condemned the arrests as harassment, and the European Union (EU) issued a statement that any further actions against embassy staff would provoke a strong and collective response. Meanwhile, Iranian officials have begun a partial recount of a random selection of 10 percent of the votes from the disputed 12 June presidential election. The Council of Guardians has already concluded in two investigations that the election result was not fraudulent and that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory is final. The council most recently concluded on 26 June that the election will not be annulled. The 28 June announcement regarding a partial recount is likely a further attempt to placate the reformist supporters who continue to protest against the 12 June election; however, it remains unlikely that the election will be overturned. Ahmadinejad has maintained a relatively low profile in recent weeks, likely in an effort to prevent further inflaming political tensions, as his actions in the days following the election sparked criticism from reformist supporters.