Security to be increased across the country

In preparation for the 10 August 2008 recall referendum, security will likely be increased across Bolivia, especially in La Paz and Santa Cruz. Given the tense political situation, there is the possibility of outbreaks of violence and major transportation disruptions within the next few days. The recall referendum is part of the ongoing struggle for political power between the national government and the provinces. The recall bill states that the president, vice president and governors of provinces will lose their positions if they do not perform better than they did in the 2005 elections. For an official to retain office, both the vote percentage and the absolute number of votes won must be higher than in 2005. If President Evo Morales and Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera lose, they must hold new elections within 90-120 days, in which they themselves are likely to be strong candidates. If the governors lose, they are to be replaced by interim governors of Morales' choosing until the next election. The recall vote on the governors will take place in eight out of the nine provinces; Chuquisaca will not participate as the governor there was just recently elected. Morales looks likely to remain in power, but whatever the outcome, the referendum is unlikely to resolve this conflict. The issue of autonomy, which the provinces have been demanding, will remain controversial, although the two sides may change their tactics depending on the results of the 10 August vote. On 7 August anti-government groups blocked a runway at one of Beni's airports to prevent Morales from visiting the area. Groups also prevented Morales from visiting Santa Cruz and Tajira. Morales was forced to hold Independence Day celebrations on 6 August in his stronghold of La Paz instead of Sucre, the nation's official capital and the traditional scene of celebrations.